Monday, 28 November 2011

Why I (and the bookies) believe City will win the league.

  • Over the past 6 seasons the team coming second in the premiership has averaged 82 points.
  • Should City still be in the top 3 at the end of the campaign City’s goal difference will be at the 55+ level.
  • It’s improbable that any team below City can improve their current level enough to match a goal difference of 55.

So obviously other teams have to outpoint us by 1. 

Statement

In an average year 82 Points will be enough for Manchester City to win the prem. Whereas United (or others) would need 83.

However:  Last year’s runners up only got 71 points which was a bit of a freak.

I decided to ignore last year's results in order to get a more balanced 2nd place, and took an average from the previous 5 seasons  (this increased City's target from 82  to 84).

Simply put Roberto Mancini has to get 49 more points from the remaining 25 games to lift the title

Where are they coming from?

49 points can be achieved a number of ways over 25 games. 

The main thing is not losing more than 6 games. (7 Losses would mean that we’d lose out to United).

Example run in:
A run in of W15 D 4 L 6 would get us to the promised land of 49 points.
(Interestingly this was our record in the final 25 games of 10/11).

Essentially our target is to win 15 games:

These are the 15 wins.
1.    Norwich (h)
2.    Stoke (h)
3.    WBA (a)
4.    Sunderland (a)
5.    Wigan (a)
6.    Fulham (h)
7.    Blackburn (h)
8.    Bolton (h)
9.    Swansea (a)
10.    Stoke (a)
11.    Sunderland (h)
12.    WBA (h)
13.    Norwich (a)
14.    Wolves (a)
15.    QPR (h)

I’ve got these down as Draws.
1.    Spurs (h)
2.    Everton (a)
3.    Villa (a)
4.    Newcastle (a)

These are the losses
1.   Chelsea (h)
2.   Arsenal (a)
3.   United (h)
4.   Liverpol (h)
5.   Arsenal (h)
6.   Chelsea (a)

(I know it looks bad, but we'll win a couple of these and lose a couple of the 'easier' wins).

The leeway City have is astonishing, even the most optimistic United fans would feel it difficult to do serious damage to this predicted win list.
And while we won’t win all of those, the same frequency error can be applied to our draw or loss list as well.  In Gary Cook speak – the trajectory is looking pretty good.

Personally,  the ONLY way I can see City failing to win the league is if United upped their game and dominate the rest of the season at the level Chelsea did 4 or 5 years ago.   If they lose more than 3 games- they are screwed.

I don't care about tempting fate, late nights at Stoke City or how one team knows how to dig in. These are media phrases that mean little. We have 15 games to win, and I'd gladly play our second string in all the other fixtures if it meant we had the fitness to pick up those points.

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