Why I (and the bookies) believe City will win the league.

• Over the past 6 seasons the team coming second in the premiership has averaged 82 points.
• Should City still be in the top 3 at the end of the campaign City’s goal difference will be at the 55+ level.
• It’s improbable that any team below City can improve their current level enough to match a goal difference of 55.

So obviously other teams have to outpoint us by 1. 

Statement

In an average year 82 Points will be enough for Manchester City to win the prem. Whereas United (or others) would need 83.

However:  Last year’s runners up only got 71 points which was a bit of a freak.

I decided to ignore last year's results in order to get a more balanced 2nd place, and took an average from the previous 5 seasons  (this increased City's target from 82  to 84).

Simply put Roberto Mancini has to get 49 more points from the remaining 25 games to lift the title

Where are they coming from?

49 points can be achieved a number of ways over 25 games. 

The main thing is not losing more than 6 games. (7 Losses would mean that we’d lose out to United).

Example run in:
A run in of W15 D 4 L 6 would get us to the promised land of 49 points.
(Interestingly this was our record in the final 25 games of 10/11).

Essentially our target is to win 15 games:

These are the 15 wins.
1.    Norwich (h)
2.    Stoke (h)
3.    WBA (a)
4.    Sunderland (a)
5.    Wigan (a)
6.    Fulham (h)
7.    Blackburn (h)
8.    Bolton (h)
9.    Swansea (a)
10.    Stoke (a)
11.    Sunderland (h)
12.    WBA (h)
13.    Norwich (a)
14.    Wolves (a)
15.    QPR (h)

I’ve got these down as Draws.
1.    Spurs (h)
2.    Everton (a)
3.    Villa (a)
4.    Newcastle (a)

These are the losses
1.   Chelsea (h)
2.   Arsenal (a)
3.   United (h)
4.   Liverpol (h)
5.   Arsenal (h)
6.   Chelsea (a)

(I know it looks bad, but we'll win a couple of these and lose a couple of the 'easier' wins).

The leeway City have is astonishing, even the most optimistic United fans would feel it difficult to do serious damage to this predicted win list.
And while we won’t win all of those, the same frequency error can be applied to our draw or loss list as well.  In Gary Cook speak – the trajectory is looking pretty good.

Personally,  the ONLY way I can see City failing to win the league is if United upped their game and dominate the rest of the season at the level Chelsea did 4 or 5 years ago.   If they lose more than 3 games- they are screwed.

I don't care about tempting fate, late nights at Stoke City or how one team knows how to dig in. These are media phrases that mean little. We have 15 games to win, and I'd gladly play our second string in all the other fixtures if it meant we had the fitness to pick up those points.

Win a free copy of Andy Conway's book. "The Strikers Fear of the Open Goal"

Win a paperback copy of "The Striker’s Fear of the Open Goal", the new novel all about City’s road to the FA Cup Final and one man’s mission to ‘Get a life. Get the girl. Get to Wembley.’

Written by a BlueVibe regular, you’ll see lots of thinly-disguised Vibers taking part in the action, roaring City on to their first trophy in 35 years (while discussing bread products).

The Striker’s Fear of the Open Goal is a desperate, comic look at how a football team can be the most depressing thing in a man’s life… and the only thing worth living for. It’s now available in paperback on Amazon and Createspace for the best part of a tenner (which is a bargain, by the way).

But we’re giving away 6 (SIX!) copies to the lucky winners who can answer one simple question.

All you have to do is download the free ebook sample off Amazon or Smashwords, read the opening and then tell us:

'After which historic City victory did Ewan first have sex with Moira?' 

Where can you find out the answer?

You can find the first few chapters (and the answer online) via Amazon or Smashwords).

You don’t need to have an actual Kindle to download the ebook sample. You can download the free Kindle Reader app for PC, Mac, iPad, iPhone, Android right here.

This competition is open to all. Paid up Vibe Members and those just popping in from Bluemoon to get themselves a freebie.

DEADLINE: Get your answer to us before kick off v QPR and send it to site@bluevibe.co.uk


________________________________________
Praise by Man City fans
‘I was in floods of tears with the Cup Final bit.’
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‘Absolutely mint.’
‘Well worth a read — if only for his comments on Mark Hughes. And on Denise from Mongleton.’
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Content Warning: This is NOT a Family Stand book! It’s about hard drinking 'grizzlers' who like their football and swear a lot. It’s also about love and failure and passion and hope. But with swearing. Lots and lots of swearing.

Match Preview. Villareal v Manchester City. Champions League Match 4

Manchester City make the trip to Valencia  this evening for match 4 in their qualifying group. Currently lying third behind Napoli and Bayern Munich this game is realistically a make or break for Mancini’s men.

The opportunity is certainly there for the free scoring blues, as Villareal CF have not got a great deal to play for.  Things might have been different had Sergio Aguero not grabbed his late winner in the 2-1 battle 2 weeks ago.  

Now it seems unlikely that they stand any real chance of 3^rd spot and given the state of their injury room, they’ll be more concerned with getting to the final whistle unscathed.

Villareal will line up tonight missing  Guiseppe Rossi, Cristian Zapata, Cani, Marco Ruben and Marcos Senna. To lessen any psychological blow to their supporters they have listed Javier Camuñas as ‘doubtful’.

With Vincent Kompany facing a domestic one match ban against QPR on Saturday I suspect that Mancini will decide to keep the inform Jolean Lescott away from the action underlining the Premier League  as his main priority for the year.

It might seem odd given his current internal hearing but I wouldn’t be to see surprised to see Kolo Toure in the starting lineup.  Toure had a rough time in his previous cup outing against Wolves but this could be a good chance to build some confidence again.

City have never won a game on Spanish soil, so it’s fair to say that Mancini will go with a line up of players who are used to the Spanish way of doing things.  Pablo Zabaleta, Yaya Toure, Silva and Aguero have all notched league victories against Villareal before.

Why do they play in Yellow?

In 1947 their suppliers sports shop didn’t have any White kits in stock,  all they had left was Yellow.

In the other Group A match Napoli travel to Bayern. A draw would be the most helpful result for City, but a Napoli win would make things very interesting. 

Predicted Team Line Up.

Hart, Zabaleta Kompany K Toure Clichy Milner, Yaya Toure, De Jong Silva Aguero Balotelli

Prediction

Villareal CF 0 City 2